Your Monthly Market Newsletter, SEPTEMBER 2025

September has arrived, and according to commentators, the U.S. economy is performing in line with expectations. The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are clearly visible. Higher tariffs have begun to increase prices in some categories of goods.  It will take some time for tariff increases to work their way through supply chains.

This year, the economy has faced other new challenges, such as a tighter immigration policy, which has led to an abrupt slowdown in labor force growth. There have also been changes in tax, spending, and regulatory policies that may have implications for both economic growth and productivity. There is still uncertainty on where all the policies will settle and what their effect will look like moving into the remainder of 2025.

The July employment report released earlier this month showed that payroll job growth slowed to an average pace of 35,000 per month over the past three months, down from 168,000 per month during 2024. The unemployment rate, while edging up in July, stands historically low at 4.2% and has been stable over the past year. Labor supply has softened in line with demand, lowering the “breakeven” rate of job creation needed to hold the unemployment rate constant. GDP growth has slowed in the first half of this year to 1.2%, roughly half the 2.5% in 2024. The decline in growth has reflected a slowdown in consumer spending.

We wish you an excellent start to the autumn season! If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out. Happy Fall!

Stocks

Stocks closed out the summer with volatility. While major US indices finished higher, the Russell 2000 stood out as the top performer, reflecting the strength of smaller companies that are often more sensitive to economic conditions. Expectations for interest rate cuts, which would reduce borrowing costs, helped drive small-cap gains during the month. Equities also found support from solid earnings results that generally met or exceeded forecasts. Offsetting these positives, a pullback of several large technology companies weighed on performance as investors took profits ahead of September, historically the weakest month for stocks.

Sector Performance

Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors posted gains in August, fueling the broader market rally. Materials and healthcare led the advance, with materials supported by renewed interest in infrastructure projects and domestic manufacturing, while healthcare rebounded on stronger earnings that helped improve sentiment. Utilities were the lone laggard pressured by concerns around the sustainability of heavy AI-related spending. The sector had previously benefited from rising demand for energy to power data centers, but investor caution grew during the month. By the end of August, all 11 S&P 500 sectors were showing positive returns for the year.

Bonds

Fixed income markets broadly advanced in August as Treasury yields declined across the curve. Because bond prices move inversely to yields, this drop translated into gains for bondholders. Yields fell as expectations for upcoming interest rate cuts gained traction, with the Federal Reserve anticipated to reduce rates at its next meeting modestly. The two-year Treasury yield declined 0.34%, while the 10-year slipped 0.15%, reflecting stable inflation and concerns that higher rates could slow economic growth. While lower rates imply reduced starting yields for new fixed income investments, they also support price appreciation for bonds already in circulation.

Economic Update

The most notable shift in August economic data was a downward revision to job growth from the prior two months, softening the picture of an otherwise resilient labor market. At the same time, GDP was revised higher to 3.3% in the second quarter reading, underscoring steady economic momentum. Inflation inched up as expected, with headline PCE holding at 2.6%, and core PCE rising slightly to 2.9%, both still above the Fed's 2% target. Overall, the data signaled that while growth is moderating, the economy remains on solid ground. These trends align with expectations for a “soft landing” where inflation is contained without triggering a broader downturn.

Impact Fundraising: Leading Wildlife Photographers Giving Back for Conservation

The global wildlife photography market was estimated at $1.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $2.5 billion by 2033, according to recent data. In 2020, a team of expert photographers formed a fundraiser to support conservation primarily across Africa. Over time, this fundraiser has evolved into a significant global movement, comprised of over 200 of the world’s leading wildlife photographers who donate their work in support of nature. The fundraiser, titled “Prints for Wildlife,” is one of the most impactful wildlife photography print sales to date, with 100% of the profits going directly to conservation nonprofit partners. This year, Prints for Wildlife aims to expand its global reach and create lasting impacts for wildlife worldwide.

By capturing an image of a wild animal in its natural habitat, the viewer can have a deeper understanding and connection with the natural world. Photographers often use their photos to convey emotion, and their work helps to raise awareness, encourage conservation, and provide education. Leading photographer Gurcharan Roopra recounts his experience capturing a Maasai-owned giraffe in southern Kenya as it approached a watering hole. Roopra states, “Every movement was slow and deliberate. Photographing this moment meant waiting in silence, working in near-total darkness. With a long exposure and just a flicker of light, I captured the graceful arc of motion as it drank – a fleeting, almost mythical scene. One frame. One breath. The photo is a rare glimpse into the secret life of the wild.” This photograph, which Roopa captured, is now known as “A Brushstroke of Gold” and is among more than 200 images featured in the Edition Hope collection, the 2025 return of Prints for Wildlife.

All proceeds from the sale benefit Conservation International. This global nonprofit works to protect biodiversity, restore ecosystems, and support the livelihoods of communities that live near nature. Since its launch in 2020, the fundraiser has raised over $2.1 million. 

To learn more about this exciting global fundraiser and to view more of the inspiring efforts of this fundraiser, visit Prints for Wildlife, and continue reading the full article here. 

THOUGHT FOR THE MONTH

^{Index Definitions}

^{Dow Jones Industrial Average:The Dow Jones Industrial Average® (The Dow®), is a price-weighted measure of 30 U.S. blue-chip companies. The index covers all industries except transportation and utilities.}

^{Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Total Return Index:The index is designed to track the performance of real estate investment trusts (REIT) and other companies that invest directly or indirectly in real estate through development, management, or ownership, including property agencies.}

^{NASDAQ Composite:The NASDAQ Composite is a market-cap weighted index of all issues listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It is heavily weighted towards the technology sector.} 

^{S&P 500 Bond Index:The S&P 500® Bond Index is designed to be a corporate-bond counterpart to the S&P 500, which is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities. Market value-weighted, the index seeks to measure the performance of U.S. corporate debt issued by constituents in the iconic S&P 500.}

^{S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary:The S&P 500® Consumer Discretionary comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the GICS® consumer discretionary sector.}

^{S&P 500 Consumer Staples:The S&P 500® Consumer Staples comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the GICS® consumer staples sector.}

^{S&P 500 Energy:The S&P 500® Energy comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the GICS® energy sector.}

^{S&P 500 Financials:The S&P 500® Financials comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the GICS® financials sector.}

^{S&P 500 Index:The S&P 500® index is a market-cap weighted index of the largest 500 companies headquartered in the United States. The index covers approximately 80% of available market capitalization.}

^{S&P 500 Utilities:The S&P 500® Utilities comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the GICS® utilities sector.}

^{S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index:The S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is designed to measure the performance of publicly issued U.S. dollar denominated investment-grade debt. The index is part of the S&P AggregateTM Bond Index family and includes U.S. treasuries, quasi-governments, corporates, taxable municipal bonds, foreign agency, supranational, federal agency, and non-U.S. debentures, covered bonds, and residential mortgage pass-throughs.}

^{S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Index:The S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Index is a broad, comprehensive, market-value weighted index that seeks to measure the performance of the U.S. Treasury Bond market.}

^Disclosures

^{PLEASE NOTE: When you link to any of the websites displayed within this email, you are leaving this email and assume total responsibility and risk for your use of the website you are linking to. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of any information provided at these websites.}

^{A portion of this material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG Suite, LLC, is not affiliated with the named representative, broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.}

^{Index performance does not reflect the deduction of any fees and expenses, and if deducted, performance would be reduced. Indexes are unmanaged and investors are not able to invest directly into any index. Past performance cannot guarantee future results.} 

^{Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect again loss. In general, the bond market is volatile; bond prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. This effect is usually pronounced for longer-term securities. Any fixed-income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to a substantial gain or loss. Vehicles that invest in lower-rated debt securities (commonly referred to as junk bonds or high-yield bonds) involve additional risks because of the lower credit quality of the securities in the portfolio. International investing involves special risks not present with U.S. investments due to factors such as increased volatility, currency fluctuation, and differences in auditing and other financial standards. These risks can be accentuated in emerging markets.}

^{The statements provided herein are based solely on the opinions of the Osaic Research Team and are being provided for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Any opinions provided herein should not be relied upon for investment decisions and may differ from those of other departments or divisions of Osaic or its affiliates.}

^{Certain information may be based on information received from sources the Osaic Research Team considers reliable; however, the accuracy and completeness of such information cannot be guaranteed. Certain statements contained herein may constitute “projections,” “forecasts” and other “forward-looking statements” which do not reflect actual results and are based primarily upon applying retroactively a hypothetical set of assumptions to certain historical financial information. Any opinions, projections, forecasts and forward-looking statements presented herein reflect the judgment of the Osaic Research Team only as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. Osaic has no obligation to provide updates or changes to these opinions, projections, forecasts and forward-looking statements. Osaic is not soliciting or recommending any action based on any information in this document.}